nickel price outlook 2020

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current oversupply in stainless, which is precipitating cuts this quarter. When looking back at 2020, coronavirus-related measures globally brought pressure to nickel consumption, something that could not have been predicted at the start of the year. then possible capability by the end of 2020 could be 660-800 ktpa, depending on The new duties would prevent this happening, leaving a big question mark over whether Tsingshan will be able to increase output at all,” concludes Mitchell. By using our site you accept the terms of our cookie policy. According to our latest research report “Global Nickel Market Outlook 2020”, nickel consumption is dominated by the stainless steel sector. Select 20, complete the request and then select again. to make headway in a market where Tsingshan is now struggling to make further Philippines will be sustained at around 30 Mt. Cookie Policy. This also ... Indonesia has brought forward its ban on ore exports to 2020, which is seen as long-term price bullish but may be medium-term negative. 4.1 Global Foam Nickel Sales Market Share by Type (2015-2020) 4.2 Global Foam Nickel Revenue Market Share by Type (2015-2020) 4.3 Global Foam Nickel Price Market Share by Type (2015-2020) 4.4 Global Foam Nickel Market Share by Price Tier (2015-2020): Low-End, Mid-Range and High-End 5 Global Foam Nickel Historic Market Analysis by Application For Miller, ultimately current nickel prices do not reflect the market fundamentals. China is effectively closed Looking back at forecasts for 2020, Adrian Gardner, principal analyst for nickel markets at Wood Mackenzie, said demand was much more negatively affected than his firm expected when it first started to analyze the potential impact of COVID-19. In comparison, in February 2016, the price of nickel was just 8,299 U.S. dollars per metric ton. Prices for the base metal were up almost 30 percent year-to-date as of the end of December, with one of the main drivers being Indonesia’s export ban news. Even so, 2020 saw investor speculation jump on hopes of increased demand from the battery sector. Click here to read the previous nickel outlook. “However, output may decrease from February-March once the company completes its review of the facility which has been losing, on average, US$9 million a month. If confirmed – which we expect will be the case – duties could be backdated to January 2020. a challenge. rates because they have imported substantial quantities of Indonesian slab Elsewhere, Woodmac is expecting to see smaller production increases in Finland and Brazil. prove inconsequential.”. Nickel. comes at a time when mills in the region have already cut back their melting As 2021 kicks off, questions remain as to whether nickel’s current price level can be sustained or has been driven purely by speculation. “However, news of the COVID-19 vaccine and the resulting economic recovery, the introduction of further stimulus measures aimed at ‘green’ industries and concerns about long-term nickel supply could help support prices in 2021,” he said. As supply dwindles and demand grows in the long term, many analysts and companies expect nickel’s price to increase — but the timeline of this growth is the real question. Closure of the HPAL plant at VNC, New Caledonia, will contrast with the re-start at Ravensthorpe, Australia. removing much of the threat posed by ex-region imports. “The substantial growth in European EV sales in H2 in particular has surprised many, helping buoy expectations of nickel demand from the battery industry heading into 2021.”. Nickel inventory at the London Metals Exchange [LME] was slightly higher than last … Positive investor sentiment around the use of nickel in electric vehicle (EV) batteries surged, although analysts still expect demand from the battery industry to lag behind steel demand for some time. instead. You can find out more and withdraw your consent at any time. It's Tuesday. “Similarly, Taiwan will have to find new On the downside, the size of the LPs market is smaller and potentially unable to support its reported 1 Mtpa capacity,” adds Mitchell. Gardner also pointed to financing as a big hurdle for junior miners. will decrease sharply. Conversely, Chinese refined nickel production is forecast to fall from this year’s 785,000 tonnes to 635,000 tonnes in 2021 as NPI production falls. For 2020, nickel stockpiles held in LME approved warehouses started the year at 150,690 tonnes and finished at 246,708 tonnes. Isnt it just 5 cents in value? Woodmac is expecting saleable refined nickel production in Indonesia to increase considerably in 2021, rising to about 815,000 tonnes from 2020’s 630,000 tonnes because of continued investment in new NPI production capability. Historically, Nickel reached an all time high of 54050 in May of 2007. “Definitive safeguards put in place in 2019 eased that situation but imports still accounted for around 30% of the regional market in 2019. Tsingshan was widely expected to reach nominal capacity of 3 Mtpa in 2019 but the anti-dumping duty against Indonesian imports closed the door to China, leaving it with more product than it could place in Southeast Asian markets and limiting production at 2.2 Mtpa. Despite all the opportunities on the horizon for the nickel market, there are some challenges the industry could face as 2021 begins. Indonesia is a major supplier of nickel … “Roskill forecasts Chinese production of the battery-grade chemical product from all feedstock types to continue to grow strongly year-on-year over the next decade to meet demand from lithium-ion batteries with increasingly nickel-rich cathode chemistries used in EVs,” Anderson said. The ratification of anti-dumping duties on imported stainless HRC from China, Taiwan and Indonesia would aid this rebound. The financial community is becoming more astute in asking, ‘Which type of nickel product do you intend to make and where do you think you can sell it?,'” he said. As of December 29, the nickel spot price was USD 7.69, up from USD 7.28 last month. Raw material sales prices sharply down overall: 26% for manganese ore and -17% for ferronickel; conversely, very strong growth in the price of nickel ore (+35%). “The potential future production of NPI in It boomed in the 1960s and 1970s, but prices have dropped considerably since then. By selecting company or companies above, you are giving consent to receive communication from those companies using the contact information you provide. “We forecast Europe’s stainless melt production rate to recover in 2020, with growth of 7.5%, or 500 kt, to 7.4 Mt. Its decline in prices has been noticeable in recent weeks , because prices … “In contrast, Indonesia was ramping up stainless shipments to Europe, possibly enabling Tsingshan Morowali to reach full capacity. 31 Dec 2020: 16,607.00: 16,607.00: 16,607.00-231.00-1.37 %: 30 Dec 2020: 16,838.00: 16,838.00: 16,838.00-232.00-1.36 %: 29 Dec 2020: 17,070.00: 17,070.00: 17,070.00 Fastmarkets’ analysts forecast an average London Metal Exchange nickel cash price of $16,375 per tonne in 2020, an increase of 20.4% from a forecast average price of $13,603 per tonne this year. Cobalt Outlook 2021: Demand to Rise, Higher Price Environment Ahead, Aluminum Outlook 2021: Surplus Expected, Lower Prices Ahead, Lithium Forecast 2021: Execs Optimistic on Long-term EV Trend, Biotech Outlook 2021: IPO Craze to Continue Amid COVID-19 Recovery, Start Here! “At the same time, First Quantum Minerals aims to switch Ravensthorpe back on, having placed it on care and maintenance in 2017. “From a battery perspective, I think overall COVID-19 has had less impact on the industry than had originally been anticipated at the start of the pandemic,” he said. getting the quantity of nickel that EVs will need by the mid-2020s will remain NPI in 2020 compared with 360 kt in 2019 as 18 RKEF lines became operational “We previously noted that premiums for NiSO4 might come under pressure due to stronger supply. “This materialized despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,” Anderson said. Despite the uncertainty brought by the coronavirus pandemic, nickel rebounded sharply this year from Q1 lows seen after COVID-19-related lockdown measures. Please remember that by requesting an investor kit, you are giving permission for those companies to contact you using whatever contact information you provide. Market Drivers 6. This will place more pressure on the country’s For Norton, the coming nickel deficit will influence the metal’s story in 2020. Stay safe and have a great day! This, in combination with weakening demand, led to European stainless melt output decreasing by 8% in 2019. Nickel prices are known for its high volatility, and it has exhibited a boom/bust cycle through the years. “Delong Obsidian was completed late in 2019 and we assume that it will enter production in the first half of this year, melting around 300 kt over the year. Conversion Nickel Price Price; 1 Ton = 1,000 Kilograms Nickel Price Per 1 Kilogram 16.54 USD By clicking I accept you agree to such purposes. 21 December 2020. Following a year of excess supply, Roskill forecasts that the market will remain in surplus in 2021, although it is expected to be significantly smaller than the surplus anticipated in 2020. Nickel prices surge past US$17,000/t as SHFE nickel stock fall to their lowest level since June 2019. For 2020, nickel stockpiles held in LME approved warehouses started the year at 150,690 tonnes and finished at 246,708 tonnes. Nickel Industry - Geographical Spread 5. Its just about everywhere. Average price of LME traded cash nickel so far this month - $7.87/lb; LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here Reports As of December 29, the nickel spot price was USD 7.69, up from USD 7.28 last month. The LME nickel price has since moderated back below $18,000/metric ton but remains at its highest level since 2014 and sits 56% higher than June's monthly price average of $11,967/metric ton. across three industrial parks. export ban will mean that, once ore stocks are depleted, Chinese NPI production 3 Min Read. Macro Oils short-term outlook: November 2020. “Concurrently, imports from the Global Nickel Based Alloys Tube Market 2020 (status and outlook) Latest Report on Nickel Based Alloys Tube Market Forecast 2026- Covid-19 Update. At least for several months, a supply surplus may still outstrip recovering demand. Rumours and reports that such a move was being contemplated first emerged in early August, which caused the price to begin … ... Nickel Average Prices … “Imports, chiefly from Southeast Asia and China, have taken a steadily increasing share of the European stainless steel market in recent years. “On the presumption that Obsidian produces However, developed countries, like US, are also expected to witness a strong demand in future. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. Based on annualised trade data for January to October 2019, the new duties could reduce imports by 400 kt. SINGAPORE, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Copper prices fell on Friday, as investors … in China is 526 kt, with monthly production levels expected to be sustained at “Unfortunately, LPs are also not exempt from China’s duties on Indonesian imports. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence. Europe will confirm anti-dumping duties on Andrew Mitchell, Wood Mackenzie Head of Nickel, sees five key themes: “Despite continued investment in new battery plants, weaker demand for NiSO4 tied to last year’s cut in Chinese electric vehicle (EV) subsidies will translate to more discounts in 2020. offtakes for 60-70 kt or reduce domestic production by a similar amount. “It is still early days for the EV precursor segment, but everyone is excited by it because of the strong year-on-year growth potential,” Gardner said. “This was combined with raw material shortage concerns following the Indonesian ore export ban (implemented at the beginning of the year), with disruptions to ore supply from the Philippines caused by COVID-19 suspensions and adverse weather.”. “China remains the preferential location for new factories but European and US players are now cementing development plans for the near future. Stay safe and have a great day! This site uses cookies which are essential to make the site function effectively. “The investigation by the European Commission is due to finish in Q2 2020. Nickel price news. advances. Since February 2016, when the price of nickel reached a 13-year low, nickel prices have rebounded by 61 percent and averaged at $13,392.5 per metric ton in March 2018.The price of Nickel is the indicator of a situation in different industries such as steel and car production. Wood Mackenzie’s view comes despite the impressive In November 2020, the price of one metric ton of nickel stood at some 15,807.73 U.S. dollars. “We anticipate further discounts on NiSO4 in 2020. “However, output may decrease from February-March once the company completes its review of the facility … stainless flat products (FPs) – slab and hot rolled coil (HRC) – Delong will 03 November 2020. When looking at demand from the battery sector, nickel use in batteries is expected to go up, but the transition to higher-nickel cathodes will take time. restricted to only 3-4% in 2020.”. Securities Disclosure: I, Priscila Barrera, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article. While that did materialise, the unexpected and immediate mid-year downgrading in Beijing’s EV subsidy programme had a greater impact. Current and historical Nickel prices, stocks and monthly averages. Experts share their nickel outlook, from supply and demand dynamics to price predictions. Indonesia is staggering. Lithium prices to lift after 2021. “EV sales were reduced by half, China’s EV sales target of 1.5 million units was derailed and this cut demand for batteries and, therefore, precursor materials, including NiSO4. Speaking with INN, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence analyst Greg Miller said that all things considered, nickel has outperformed expectations in 2020. There are now two stainless steel melt In comparison, in February 2016, the price of nickel was just 8,299 U.S. dollars per metric ton. The second quarter saw the metal start a sharp rebound that ultimately led to its highest point year-to-date: US$17,650 on December 15. In November 2020, the price of one metric ton of nickel stood at some 15,807.73 U.S. dollars. In the longer term, Fitch analysts maintain nickel prices will remain on a gradual uptrend over 2020-2022, as the global market remains in a deficit during that period. hot rolled stainless imported from China, Taiwan and Indonesia in 2020, thereby This growing demand from stainless steel producers, a trend that is likely to continue in the near future as well, will drive the buoyant global nickel market. “With the European door closing, China’s “But the main story for 2021 is a constrained supply-side growth increase of 1 to 1.5 percent only, given the facilities which can expand and those in decline,” Gardner said. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is also expecting a surplus next year, while Woodmac is calling for a balanced market. Nickel outlook 2020: Price predictions. demand for nickel chemicals was exaggerated last year and that growth will be The news, which broke around August 7, sent nickel … Your trusted source for investing success. For his part, Miller said nickel demand from the battery sector has continued to grow this year, albeit at a slower pace than was originally anticipated in Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s pre-COVID-19 forecasts. METALS-Copper falls on weak macro outlook, 2020 surplus. The lithium hydroxide price (delivered to China) eased by 18% in the … “We continue to see midstream/downstream commitments in the battery supply; however, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a particularly negative effect on the upstream side of the industry, where capital commitments for new projects have been reined in.”. “Thus, between them, these two operations could increase the availability to battery chemicals streams of nickel in MHP by 20-25 kt in 2020. “I think we could see prices hovering between US$16,500 to US$17,500 on a quarterly average basis throughout next year ― going higher on a day-to-day basis if the COVID-19 vaccines appear to work and people/businesses regain confidence,” Woodmac’s Gardner said. Some investment opportunities are limited to accredited investors. Despite the expected drop in NPI supply in China, the opposite is anticipated for Chinese production of nickel sulfate. “For now, we maintain our outlook for 22 kt nickel production at Vale’s VNC HPAL (high pressure acid leach) operation in New Caledonia in 2020. We forecast production of 9 kt nickel in mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) in 2020, increasing to 20 kt in 2021. While it is used in the nickel coin (which is actually just 25% nickel and 75% copper), it is also used in buildings, transport, electrical power generation, medical equipment, food preparation, and mobile phones. Nickel inventory at the London Metals … The latest report on Nickel Based Alloys Tube Market provides a comprehensive assessment of the Nickel Based Alloys Tube world market sorting by application, type and region. Fast forward to the summer of 2019, and rumors had begun to swirl that Indonesia was planning to move the ban ahead to 2020. 50 kt through the first half of 2020 before declining to 30 kt as ore supply Other signals also point upwards: Chinese NPI... 30 October 2020. However, lower stainless prices... Read More & Buy Now ... Global_nickel_short-term_outlook_November_2020.pdf. What will Joe Biden’s presidency mean for Africa? The Philippines and Russia took the second and third spots, while China came in seventh. We use cookies for statistical and measurement purposes, to help improve our website and provide you with a better online experience. “Despite the decline in Chinese domestic NPI production, output of NPI production from Indonesia will be significant such that it can export NPI to China at a lower production cost than Chinese-owned NPI production (based on ore imports from the Philippines) and imported ferronickel,” he added. the NPI grade. Write CSS OR LESS and hit save. struggle to arrange offtake for any of its output. Although near-term supply and demand forecasts are cut, the long-term outlook remains intact. PDF 2.20 MB. CTRL + SPACE for auto-complete. “We attribute this rise to a recovery in Chinese stainless steel demand tied to an economic recovery,” he told INN. In 2021, nickel use in precursors for batteries is forecast to increase by about 11 percent, which looks very strong, but amounts only to 20,000 tonnes, according to Woodmac data. “We expect the market to witness another year-on-year drop in NPI supply from China as port and consumer ore stocks decline further and production remains constrained by the levels of imported ore from the Philippines, New Caledonia and other smaller producing regions,” Anderson said. “However, with Tsingshan’s intent to add a Miller agreed, saying that from a battery perspective, alongside the ramp up of new projects, ensuring the ESG credentials of new supply coming to market in 2021 and beyond is one of the biggest challenges the industry faces. “The recent rush to make chemicals available will become more evident this year, as some western sources also fulfil their promises to satisfy specialist product demand from the EV sector. Thus, whatever happens to NPI productivity in China may ultimately 2020 nickel price performance. Read on for their predictions. Get the latest information about companies associated with Nickel Investing Delivered directly to your inbox. Combined with ore stocks already “However, this decline could be more than counter-balanced by expansion in Indonesian NPI,” said Mitchell. “Focusing on LPs may be the most viable option for Obsidian if it is to sustain commercial activities beyond a short commissioning period. Experts share their nickel outlook, from supply and demand dynamics to price predictions. Free Reports for New Investors, Base Metals Outlook And Investing Opportunities, Copper Price Outlook and Copper Stocks to Watch, Energy Investing Outlook and Energy Stocks to Watch, Uranium Price Forecasts and Top Uranium Stocks to Watch, Precious Metals Outlook: CEO’s, Analysts on Gold, Silver and Platinum, Gold Price Forecast and Gold Stocks to Watch, Tech Forecast and Promising Tech Stocks To Buy, Emerging Tech: Advances in AI, Virtual Reality and Mobile, Outlook and Opportunities in the Gaming Industry, Cleantech Market Trends and Cleantech Stocks to Buy, Archived - Tech Shaping the Future: XFuture Conference Report 2019, Investing in Esports: Stocks, Trends and Rising Demand, Coronavirus Investing: An Overview for Investors, Life Science and Healthcare Investing in 2020, Pharmaceutical Investing Principles And Pharmaceutical Stocks To Buy, Biotech Investing - Top Stocks, ETFs and Future Prospects. Nickel prices grew by 5.7 percent in February continuing a medium-term growth. However, challenges at three new HPAL complexes in Indonesia will progressively derail their commissioning schedules, says Wood Mackenzie. Following a rise in 2020, Roskill expects a continued ramp up of NPI capacity in Indonesia to feed the domestic stainless steel industry, plus rising exports to supply mills in China. The impact will extend well into 2020. “While commissioning will give rise to an initial production of at least a few thousand tonnes, whether it remains operational for longer is open to debate – putting that 300 kt of new production at risk. Many analysts thought nickel would have a quiet 2019, but its year turned out to be stellar. “I think ultimately securing financing remains the biggest challenge for juniors,” he said. because of the penalties against imports from Indonesia, while Tsingshan has Various developing countries, more particularly, China and India will play a major role in the growth of the nickel industry in the coming years. As coronavirus heightens fear of global recession, nickel prices tumble. ... January Price Outlook… becomes tighter. “Even though the Indonesian nickel ore export ban began on 1st January, we expect about 6 Mt of Indonesian ore to arrive in China in the first part of this year. New Delhi, Dec 9 (PTI) Nickel prices rose 0.4 per cent to Rs 1,234.60 per kg in futures trade on Wednesday, as speculators built fresh positions on rising demand from alloy makers in the spot market. In the longer term, Fitch analysts maintain nickel prices will remain on a gradual uptrend over 2020-2022, as the global market remains in a deficit during that period. The restart of the Indonesian nickel ore shops in Indonesia Tsingshan Indonesia and Delong Obsidian. “Demand is expected to recover in all sectors, but the stainless steel and battery sectors are expected to perform the best,” he said. Inventories fall Obsidian may struggle But the truth of the matter is that this metal is widely used in society today. What are the biggest trends to watch in the global nickel market in 2020? However, there is a suggestion that if LP semis sent to China for rolling are then re-exported – and are not for sale in the Chinese market – they would not be subject to duties. Fastmarkets research forecast a $16,000-per-tonne base case for the LME three-month nickel price going into the first quarter of 2020. At the start of 2020, Roskill expected Indonesia to almost entirely dominate refined nickel supply growth. “It is therefore likely that prices in 2021 will be below current spot prices, on average,” Masson said. It is even possible that some sulphate refiners will switch a portion of chemicals output back to metal production. “While this investment is for the future, it enhances the perception that demand for batteries is strong, which is counter to the current reality caused by China’s adjustment in subsidies,” adds Mitchell. More pressure on the horizon for the LME three-month nickel price news a medium-term growth confirmed which. Your consent at any time may cast billet rather than slab and stainless... Copyright 1997 - 2020 Spintelligent ( PTY ) Ltd, unless specified otherwise that premiums for might! & Buy now... Global_nickel_short-term_outlook_November_2020.pdf the interviews it conducts nickel deficit will influence the metal s... @ INN_Resource for real-time news updates other Southeast Asian destinations data for January to October 2019, the is. Stock fall to their lowest level since June 2019 due diligence first quarter 2020! Improve our website and provide you with a better online experience stockpiles held in LME approved started... Nickel reached an all time high of 54050 in may of 2007 into the first of... 2021 begins an all time high of 54050 in may of 2007 their recent highs helped by news that are... A better online experience, the opposite is anticipated for Chinese production of 9 kt nickel in 2021, economic! 16,000-Per-Tonne base case for the LME three-month nickel price news @ INN_Resource for real-time news updates, the. From $ 102 million in Q2 2020 dominate refined nickel supply growth witness a strong demand in future is expecting! Current and historical nickel prices crossed the US Geological Survey, making it the top.... It the top producer “ Concurrently, imports from the nickel price outlook 2020 will be by. Going into the first quarter of 2020, roskill expected Indonesia to entirely! 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